Morning Note, Monday May 26
BluBird Capital | May 26, 2026
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We have been on a roll lately since Micron up over 120%, Qualcomm 77%, Cisco over 24%, NOK 60% and our small cap plays up 50% or more.
Hormuz Heats Up Again - and then cools and heats up…
WSJ is reporting live this morning that the U.S. sank two IRGC vessels attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by firing surface-to-air missiles at U.S. aircraft, prompting American strikes on missile launch sites near Bandar Abbas. We have seen this flip-flop play out. Any dips these situations create are an opportunity to accumulate your favorite names.
Crude is trading around $90 in the holiday-shortened session as I write this. Markets are closed today for Memorial Day, so we’re setting up for Tuesday’s open with futures the only real-time tell. Futures green for tech so far with many of our small cap positions up 10% or more.
How we got here
Friday we consolidated at market highs and I trimmed into strength, you’ll recall our two energy and materials adds from Friday’s weekend piece, both put on with a 1-2 year demand thesis in mind. The narrative carrying into the weekend was constructive: a ceasefire extension was being pushed out, the U.S. was negotiating a broader deal with Iran, and the consensus framing was deal → lower oil → lower inflation → big risk-on rally. That was my base case too.
Macro is genuinely impossible to predict here kinetic incidents can de-escalate within 48 hours or compound into something structural. If oil sustains $90+, the disinflation-driven rally thesis breaks down and energy/materials re-rate higher. If this is a 48-hour event and crude fades back to the $80- $90 range, the original deal-rally setup is still on the table.
Indices recap - week ended Friday May 22
S&P 500 +0.95%
Nasdaq Composite +0.37%
Week ahead - macro calendar
Post-NVDA we’re in a lull, but two prints matter:
Jobless Claims and Core PCE Price Index
Core PCE is the one. If it comes in hot against a backdrop of $90 crude, the Fed cut path gets pushed out further and the equity tape has a problem. If it prints cool and Hormuz de-escalates, we get the rally everyone was positioning for over the weekend.