Morning Note - May 18, 2026
BluBird Capital
01 | Market Levels
Worth noting that based on history, if we get roughly 7% above the 21 EMA it is time to raise cash or hedge. At current 21 EMA levels that threshold sits around 7,750. As of Friday’s close the S&P is 2.3% above the 21 EMA, so not there yet but narrowing every week.
Since the April lows the QQQ 10 EMA has held every single pullback. Watch that line closely early in the week. It is the near-term tell for whether this market is still in trend-following mode.
Nasdaq 100 EMAs
Tech has been leading the market so the Nasdaq EMAs carry more weight than the S&P right now. On balance I favor a small pullback or some sideways action as the EMAs catch up to price. If we get news over the weekend and we cross the daily high then it flips back to extremely bullish. The 21 EMA is where I will enter new swing calls, as long as it holds. The most likely outcome is we simply trade sideways for a few days. Price will tell us.
02 | What to Watch This Week
SPY just closed its 7th consecutive green week. The run has been nothing short of sensational. But look at how extended we are from the moving averages.
The week is effectively going to be decided by one print: NVDA earnings. At nearly 8% of market cap weight, Jensen’s guidance moves the entire tape, not just semis. A warning or guide-down ripples across everything beneath it. A guide-up lifts the whole market.
Oil names breaking out Friday Historically not a friendly backdrop for equities. Capital rotating defensively.
The bias this week is to watch, not chase. Let price confirm direction. The 21 EMA holds until it does not.
We added a new tech name selling below 20 PE last week. We discuss why we bought it, 1 year price targets and whether we can add LEAPS to this position.